MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
49-33 | Road
119
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
54-28 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
NUGGETS
0%
TIMBERWOLVES
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
249.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Denver)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DEN -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
MIN By 1-7 points
12.2%
MIN By 8-14 points
4.0%
DEN By 1-7 points
24.3%
DEN By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
120
MINNESOTA
Denver
129
DENVER
Simulated Score
Minnesota
108
MINNESOTA
Denver
112
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (-7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.0
Push
Proj Total: 249.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DEN @ MIN
98 - 110
Apr 27, 2026
MIN @ DEN
113 - 125
Apr 25, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 112
Apr 23, 2026
DEN @ MIN
96 - 113
Apr 20, 2026
MIN @ DEN
119 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+25.3% more
Denver: 50.0
vs
Minnesota: 39.9
Assists (L5)
+17.5% more
Denver: 29.6
vs
Minnesota: 25.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
Denver: 85.5%
vs
Minnesota: 76.7%
Blocks (L5)
+43.5% more
Minnesota: 6.6
vs
Denver: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
120.0
119
DEN Score
129.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 35.4
37.0 / 41.0
Assists
29.6 / 25.2
28.0 / 30.0
Blocks
3.7 / 6.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 49.2
44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
85.5 / 76.7
77.0 / 63.0
Rebounding
50.0 / 39.9
43.0 / 49.0
Steals
6.8 / 7.6
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
13.2 / 12.8
9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
MIN
DEN
MIN
ML
54%
57-48
54%
63-53
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
ATS
63%
65-38-2
58%
67-49
55%
47-39
54%
50-43
TTL
54%
56-48-1
63%
72-43-1
100%
86-0
100%
93-0
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