Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Kings GS @ SAC

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

37-43  |  Road

118
FINAL
Fri, Apr 10 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

21-59  |  Home

124
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
WARRIORS --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Sacramento)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

46.0%

Kings Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

GS By 1-7 points

24.3%

GS By 8-14 points

13.7%

SAC By 1-7 points

26.2%

SAC By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
111
GOLDEN STATE
112
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
119
GOLDEN STATE
123
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u228.5 Loss
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Sim u228.5 Win
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +67.6% more
Sacramento: 5.5 vs Golden State: 3.3
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Sacramento: 42.7 vs Golden State: 38.5
Free Throw % (L5) +18.7%
Golden State: 88.4% vs Sacramento: 69.7%
Assists (L5) +9.4% more
Golden State: 27.2 vs Sacramento: 24.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 111.0 118
SAC Score 112.0 124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 35.2 39.0 / 39.0
Assists 24.6 / 27.2 25.0 / 30.0
Blocks 5.5 / 3.3 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 48.7 / 48.2 46.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 69.7 / 88.4 74.0 / 93.0
Rebounding 42.7 / 38.5 49.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.0 / 8.6 10.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 15.8 / 16.1 16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
GS
SAC
GS
ML
55% 55-45
55% 95-79
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
ATS
54% 52-45-3
58% 101-73
61% 50-32
58% 49-35
TTL
58% 57-42-1
77% 134-40
100% 82-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 6 hours, 38 minutes ago
Boston Celtics' Young Wings Face Huge Opportunity After Jaylen B…
yahoo 6 hours, 44 minutes ago
Tampa Bay Rays Expected to Exercise $13 Million Club Option on Y…
si 12 hours, 57 minutes ago
Caleb Wilson's Bulls Debut: Rookie Brings Bold Talk and Mixed Re…
chicago_suntimes 19 hours, 27 minutes ago
Yaxel Lendeborg Stunned by Steve Kerr's Aggressive Demand as War…
sportingnews 1 day, 6 hours ago