MILWAUKEE
BUCKSMIL
31-48 | Road
111
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
57-22 | Home
137
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
PISTONS
0%
BUCKS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
MIL By 1-7 points
23.0%
MIL By 8-14 points
12.2%
DET By 1-7 points
26.8%
DET By 8-14 points
18.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
118
MILWAUKEE
Detroit
120
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
104
MILWAUKEE
Detroit
122
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pistons
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pistons (+20.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o222.5
Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Sim
u222.5
Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 8, 2026
MIL @ DET
111 - 137
Dec 6, 2025
MIL @ DET
112 - 124
Dec 3, 2025
DET @ MIL
109 - 113
Nov 22, 2025
DET @ MIL
129 - 116
Oct 9, 2025
DET @ MIL
111 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+35.9% more
Detroit: 9.9
vs
Milwaukee: 7.3
Assists (L5)
+23.8% more
Detroit: 31.6
vs
Milwaukee: 25.5
Blocks (L5)
+20.6% more
Detroit: 6.1
vs
Milwaukee: 5.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Detroit: 73.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 69.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
118.0
111
DET Score
120.0
137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.3 / 40.5
47.0 / 34.0
Assists
31.6 / 25.5
38.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.1 / 5.1
10.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 47.7
57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 69.4
90.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 41.7
46.0 / 32.0
Steals
9.9 / 7.3
9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
17.2 / 18.3
12.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0
(39.0%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -6.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
DET
Advantage
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
MIL
DET
MIL
ML
55%
64-53
64%
61-35
49%
47-49
60%
49-32
ATS
53%
60-54-3
68%
65-31
49%
47-49
60%
49-32
TTL
60%
70-46-1
55%
53-43
100%
96-0
100%
81-0
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