Home / NBA Projections NBA / Kings @ Warriors SAC @ GS

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

21-58  |  Road

105
FINAL
Tue, Apr 7 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

36-42  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
KINGS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
242.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Golden State)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

42.1%

Warriors Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

SAC By 1-7 points

23.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

12.2%

GS By 1-7 points

26.8%

GS By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
120
SACRAMENTO
122
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
109
SACRAMENTO
116
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.5 Loss
Proj Total: 242.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 GS @ SAC 118 - 124
Apr 7, 2026 SAC @ GS 105 - 110
Jan 9, 2026 SAC @ GS 103 - 137
Nov 5, 2025 GS @ SAC 116 - 121
Mar 13, 2025 SAC @ GS 104 - 130
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +15.4%
Golden State: 84.5% vs Sacramento: 69.1%
Assists (L5) +14.4% more
Golden State: 29.7 vs Sacramento: 26.0
Steals (L5) +12.2% more
Golden State: 8.4 vs Sacramento: 7.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Golden State: 34.1% vs Sacramento: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 120.0 105
GS Score 122.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 32.1 45.0 / 35.0
Assists 29.7 / 26.0 27.0 / 22.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.3 5.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 49.6 45.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 84.5 / 69.1 79.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 38.6 / 43.6 39.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.4 / 7.5 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.5 / 16.2 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
SAC
GS
SAC
ML
55% 95-79
55% 55-45
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
ATS
58% 101-73
54% 52-45-3
58% 49-35
61% 50-32
TTL
77% 134-40
58% 57-42-1
100% 84-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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