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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

47-29  |  Road

118
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

36-40  |  Home

111
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
CAVALIERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
256.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Cleveland)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

94.5%

Warriors Cover

5.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLE -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-7 points

13.7%

CLE By 8-14 points

24.3%

GS By 1-7 points

4.0%

GS By 8-14 points

0.8%

AI Model Projected Score
136
CLEVELAND
120
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
105
CLEVELAND
108
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cavaliers (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o229.5 Loss
Proj Total: 256.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 213.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 CLE @ GS 118 - 111
Dec 6, 2025 GS @ CLE 99 - 94
Dec 30, 2024 CLE @ GS 113 - 95
Nov 8, 2024 GS @ CLE 117 - 136
Nov 11, 2023 CLE @ GS 118 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +11.7% more
Cleveland: 3.3 vs Golden State: 3.0
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Cleveland: 50.4% vs Golden State: 48.0%
Turnovers (L5) +34.8% more
Golden State: 16.8 vs Cleveland: 12.5
Steals (L5) +19.7% more
Golden State: 8.1 vs Cleveland: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 136.0 118
GS Score 120.0 111
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 32.4 27.0 / 44.0
Assists 28.8 / 29.4 25.0 / 28.0
Blocks 3.0 / 3.3 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 48.0 / 50.4 44.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 80.1 / 79.0 85.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 40.7 / 42.0 46.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.1 / 6.8 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.8 / 12.5 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
GS Advantage
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
CLE
GS
CLE
ML
55% 95-79
60% 69-46
58% 49-35
56% 55-44
ATS
58% 101-73
67% 75-37-3
58% 49-35
56% 55-44
TTL
77% 134-40
59% 68-47
100% 84-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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