COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
1-4 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
4-1 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 27.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
27.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
100%
BLUE JAYS
0%
ROCKIES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
COL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
2
COLORADO
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
COL @ TOR
2 - 1
Mar 31, 2026
COL @ TOR
1 - 5
Mar 30, 2026
COL @ TOR
14 - 5
Aug 6, 2025
TOR @ COL
20 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
TOR @ COL
10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.739
▲
OPS
.692
180
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+41.8% more
Toronto: 1.6
vs
Colorado: 1.1
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Toronto: 0.5
vs
Colorado: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+26.9% more
Toronto: 10.6
vs
Colorado: 8.4
Hits (L5)
+17.9% more
Toronto: 10.4
vs
Colorado: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
2.0
2
TOR Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.4 / 8.8
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 8.4
17.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 14.6
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.7
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
COL
TOR
COL
ML
46%
74-87
60%
97-64
50%
80-80
55%
88-73
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-64
49%
79-81
52%
83-78
TTL
51%
80-76-5
60%
93-62-6
45%
70-85-5
50%
77-78-6
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