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DALLAS

STARSDAL

44-18-11  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, Mar 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Xfinity Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

36-24-12  |  Home

2
Goaltending
Casey DeSmith
GOALTENDER

Casey DeSmith

#1 | Goaltender
@
Cam York
GOALTENDER

Cam York

#8 | Defense
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Casey DeSmith None-None 1.89 0.933 --
Cam York None-None -- -- --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
1.89 GAA --
0.933 Save % --
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
0%
📊
FLYERS
100%
STARS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
StarsDAL (-3.5) 0 FlyersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stars Cover

30.9%

Flyers Cover

69.1%

-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around PHI +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

DAL By 1 goal

19.7%

DAL By 2-3 goals

29.6%

PHI By 1 goal

12.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3
DALLAS
2
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
2
DALLAS
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Stars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Flyers (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim u5.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 DAL @ PHI 1 - 2
Nov 15, 2025 PHI @ DAL 1 - 5
Mar 22, 2025 PHI @ DAL 2 - 3
Jan 9, 2025 DAL @ PHI 4 - 1
Jan 18, 2024 DAL @ PHI 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Shots on Goal (L5) +27.5% more
Dallas: 29.9 vs Philadelphia: 21.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +8.3% more
Dallas: 16.1 vs Philadelphia: 14.7
Faceoff % (L5) +2.1%
Dallas: 49.3% vs Philadelphia: 47.2%
Power Play % (L5) +18.8%
Philadelphia: 20.4% vs Dallas: 1.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 3.0 1
PHI Score 2.0 2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
70%MONEY30%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
DAL
PHI
DAL
ML
75% 3-1
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 3-0
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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