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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

17-55  |  Road

126
FINAL
Fri, Mar 27 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

35-38  |  Home

131
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
WIZARDS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Golden State)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

6.7%

Warriors Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

WSH By 1-7 points

4.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

1.1%

GS By 1-7 points

15.3%

GS By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
106
WASHINGTON
121
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
121
WASHINGTON
108
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (-12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Wizards (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u230.5 Loss
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u230.5 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 WSH @ GS 126 - 131
Mar 16, 2026 GS @ WSH 125 - 117
Jan 18, 2025 WSH @ GS 114 - 122
Nov 4, 2024 GS @ WSH 125 - 112
Feb 27, 2024 GS @ WSH 123 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +32.1% more
Golden State: 22.6 vs Washington: 17.1
Steals (L5) +18.2% more
Golden State: 11.3 vs Washington: 9.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.6%
Golden State: 77.0% vs Washington: 70.4%
Blocks (L5) +20.8% more
Washington: 4.5 vs Golden State: 3.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 106.0 126
GS Score 121.0 131
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 39.7 43.0 / 43.0
Assists 26.9 / 25.3 32.0 / 29.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.5 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 49.6 52.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 70.4 77.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 41.2 / 40.8 43.0 / 38.0
Steals 11.3 / 9.6 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 22.6 / 17.1 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
GS Advantage
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
WSH
GS
WSH
ML
55% 95-79
70% 112-49
58% 49-35
47% 39-44
ATS
58% 101-73
69% 111-49-1
58% 49-35
47% 39-44
TTL
77% 134-40
74% 119-41-1
100% 84-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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