Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Celtics GS @ BOS

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

33-35  |  Road

99
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 7:00 PM ET
TD Garden
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

45-23  |  Home

120
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
CELTICS
100%
WARRIORS --
CELTICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
224.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 CelticsBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

34.5%

Celtics Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BOS +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

GS By 1-7 points

27.4%

GS By 8-14 points

21.6%

BOS By 1-7 points

20.1%

BOS By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
114
GOLDEN STATE
110
BOSTON
Simulated Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
115
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Celtics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Celtics (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Celtics (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o217.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Sim u217.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 GS @ BOS 99 - 120
Feb 19, 2026 BOS @ GS 121 - 110
Jan 20, 2025 BOS @ GS 125 - 85
Nov 6, 2024 GS @ BOS 118 - 112
Mar 3, 2024 GS @ BOS 88 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.1% more
Golden State: 10.3 vs Boston: 6.7
Blocks (L5) +18.0% more
Golden State: 4.6 vs Boston: 3.8
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Golden State: 14.8 vs Boston: 13.2
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Boston: 45.2 vs Golden State: 40.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 114.0 99
BOS Score 110.0 120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.5 / 32.2 36.0 / 23.0
Assists 27.6 / 29.1 22.0 / 26.0
Blocks 3.8 / 4.6 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 46.6 48.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 88.6 / 84.7 95.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 40.9 49.0 / 39.0
Steals 6.7 / 10.3 12.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 14.8 16.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
GS
BOS
GS
ML
57% 61-46
55% 95-79
53% 47-41
58% 49-35
ATS
59% 61-43-3
58% 101-73
53% 47-41
58% 49-35
TTL
56% 60-47
77% 134-40
100% 88-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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