Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Wizards GS @ WSH

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

32-35  |  Road

125
FINAL
Mon, Mar 16 • 7:00 PM ET
Capital One Arena
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

16-50  |  Home

117
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
📊
WIZARDS
100%
WARRIORS --
WIZARDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Golden State)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 WizardsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

91.9%

Wizards Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GS -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

GS By 1-7 points

16.9%

GS By 8-14 points

26.2%

WSH By 1-7 points

5.8%

WSH By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
123
GOLDEN STATE
109
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
115
GOLDEN STATE
123
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Warriors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wizards Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Warriors (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Wizards (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.5 Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 238.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 27, 2026 WSH @ GS 126 - 131
Mar 16, 2026 GS @ WSH 125 - 117
Jan 18, 2025 WSH @ GS 114 - 122
Nov 4, 2024 GS @ WSH 125 - 112
Feb 27, 2024 GS @ WSH 123 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.3% more
Golden State: 8.9 vs Washington: 7.2
Free Throw % (L5) +9.2%
Golden State: 84.0% vs Washington: 74.8%
Turnovers (L5) +21.5% more
Washington: 16.7 vs Golden State: 13.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.0%
Washington: 36.3% vs Golden State: 34.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 123.0 125
WSH Score 109.0 117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.3 / 34.4 38.0 / 28.0
Assists 25.9 / 27.6 24.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.9 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.4 / 44.4 51.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.8 / 84.0 83.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 40.9 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.9 7.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 16.7 / 13.7 21.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS Advantage
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
GS
WSH
GS
ML
70% 112-49
55% 95-79
47% 39-44
58% 49-35
ATS
69% 111-49-1
58% 101-73
47% 39-44
58% 49-35
TTL
74% 119-41-1
77% 134-40
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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