CLEMSON
TIGERSCLEM
23-9 | Road
80
NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
24-7 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
TAR HEELS
100%
TIGERS
--
TAR HEELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Clemson)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLEM -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)
CLEM By 1-7 points
24.3%
CLEM By 8-14 points
26.8%
UNC By 1-7 points
12.2%
UNC By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Clemson
81
CLEMSON
North Carolina
72
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Clemson
74
CLEMSON
North Carolina
79
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tar Heels
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Tar Heels (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o140.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u140.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
CLEM @ UNC
80 - 79
Mar 3, 2026
CLEM @ UNC
63 - 67
Feb 10, 2025
UNC @ CLEM
65 - 85
Feb 6, 2024
CLEM @ UNC
80 - 76
Jan 6, 2024
UNC @ CLEM
65 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+33.1% more
Clemson: 7.0
vs
North Carolina: 4.7
Blocks (L5)
+18.7% more
Clemson: 4.1
vs
North Carolina: 3.3
Turnovers (L5)
+50.7% more
North Carolina: 11.3
vs
Clemson: 7.5
Assists (L5)
+10.2% more
North Carolina: 13.7
vs
Clemson: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLEM Score
81.0
80
UNC Score
72.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.3 / 33.7
37.0 / 47.0
Assists
13.7 / 12.4
15.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.3 / 4.1
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 43.2
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
79.2 / 69.0
59.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 33.7
38.0 / 29.0
Steals
4.7 / 7.0
3.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 7.5
10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLEM
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
UNC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLEM
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLEM
13-21-0
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8%
Total +/-: -2.1
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
CLEM
UNC
CLEM
ML
76%
25-8
63%
22-13
69%
22-10
72%
23-9
ATS
73%
24-9
71%
25-10
69%
22-10
72%
23-9
TTL
55%
18-15
69%
24-11
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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