Home / NBA Projections NBA / Warriors @ Jazz GS @ UTAH

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

32-31  |  Road

116
FINAL
Mon, Mar 9 • 9:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

19-45  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
WARRIORS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Utah)
WarriorsGS (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

38.2%

Jazz Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

GS By 1-7 points

21.6%

GS By 8-14 points

10.7%

UTAH By 1-7 points

27.2%

UTAH By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
112
GOLDEN STATE
115
UTAH
Simulated Score
110
GOLDEN STATE
115
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jazz Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o224.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Sim u224.0 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 9, 2026 GS @ UTAH 116 - 119
Jan 28, 2026 GS @ UTAH 140 - 124
Jan 3, 2026 UTAH @ GS 114 - 123
Nov 24, 2025 UTAH @ GS 117 - 134
Feb 5, 2025 GS @ UTAH 128 - 131
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.7%
Utah: 82.0% vs Golden State: 70.3%
Steals (L5) +10.7% more
Utah: 9.5 vs Golden State: 8.6
Blocks (L5) +8.4% more
Utah: 4.0 vs Golden State: 3.7
Turnovers (L5) +16.6% more
Golden State: 15.0 vs Utah: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GS Score 112.0 116
UTAH Score 115.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 33.3 35.0 / 31.0
Assists 25.4 / 29.4 29.0 / 33.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.7 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.2 / 44.0 48.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 82.0 / 70.3 93.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 45.2 / 45.4 50.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.5 / 8.6 8.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 15.0 17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GS Advantage
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
GS
UTAH
GS
ML
60% 96-63
55% 95-79
48% 40-43
58% 49-35
ATS
68% 108-51
58% 101-73
48% 40-43
58% 49-35
TTL
75% 119-39-1
77% 134-40
100% 83-0
100% 84-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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