Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Tigers MORE @ TNST

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

20-12  |  Road

67
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 9:00 PM ET
Ford Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

22-9  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
EAGLES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 TigersTNST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

30.9%

Tigers Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TNST +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TNST)

MORE By 1-7 points

27.2%

MORE By 8-14 points

23.0%

TNST By 1-7 points

18.6%

TNST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
77
MOREHEAD STATE
72
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
75
MOREHEAD STATE
68
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Eagles (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o143.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u143.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 MORE @ TNST 67 - 93
Feb 14, 2026 TNST @ MORE 86 - 94
Jan 15, 2026 MORE @ TNST 100 - 105
Feb 27, 2025 MORE @ TNST 55 - 64
Dec 21, 2024 TNST @ MORE 68 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +82.6% more
Tennessee State: 9.6 vs Morehead State: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +40.9% more
Tennessee State: 4.5 vs Morehead State: 3.2
Turnovers (L5) +40.4% more
Tennessee State: 13.0 vs Morehead State: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Tennessee State: 83.2% vs Morehead State: 71.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 77.0 67
TNST Score 72.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 29.1 62.0 / 30.0
Assists 11.2 / 10.2 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.5 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 44.8 49.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 71.7 85.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 38.1 44.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.6 / 5.2 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 13.0 / 9.2 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
MORE
TNST
MORE
ML
52% 16-15
62% 20-12
63% 17-10
68% 21-10
ATS
68% 21-10
59% 19-13
64% 18-10
68% 21-10
TTL
52% 16-15
53% 17-15
100% 28-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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