ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
22-8 | Road
88
MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
20-10 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
0%
TIGERS
100%
RAZORBACKS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
175.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Arkansas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARK -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
ARK By 1-7 points
27.2%
ARK By 8-14 points
23.0%
MIZ By 1-7 points
18.6%
MIZ By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas
90
ARKANSAS
Missouri
85
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
Arkansas
67
ARKANSAS
Missouri
75
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Razorbacks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Razorbacks (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Win
Proj Total: 175.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
ARK @ MIZ
88 - 84
Feb 21, 2026
MIZ @ ARK
86 - 94
Feb 22, 2025
MIZ @ ARK
85 - 92
Jan 18, 2025
ARK @ MIZ
65 - 83
Feb 24, 2024
MIZ @ ARK
73 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+42.6% more
Arkansas: 5.1
vs
Missouri: 2.9
Assists (L5)
+30.1% more
Arkansas: 17.0
vs
Missouri: 11.9
Steals (L5)
+16.5% more
Arkansas: 7.2
vs
Missouri: 6.0
Rebounding (L5)
+8.0% more
Arkansas: 33.7
vs
Missouri: 31.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARK Score
90.0
88
MIZ Score
85.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 41.6
30.0 / 50.0
Assists
11.9 / 17.0
11.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.1
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
48.3 / 51.3
48.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
67.7 / 75.1
75.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
31.0 / 33.7
34.0 / 38.0
Steals
6.0 / 7.2
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 8.5
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
ARK
MIZ
ARK
ML
61%
20-13
68%
25-12
69%
22-10
81%
25-6
ATS
70%
23-10
70%
26-11
69%
22-10
81%
25-6
TTL
79%
26-7
57%
21-16
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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