Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cougars @ Cowboys HOU @ OKST

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

25-5  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 12:00 PM ET
Gallagher-Iba Arena
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

18-12  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
COUGARS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Houston)
CougarsHOU (-3.5) 0 CowboysOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

96.4%

Cowboys Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

10.7%

HOU By 8-14 points

21.6%

OKST By 1-7 points

2.7%

OKST By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
87
HOUSTON
69
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
60
HOUSTON
72
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (+13.5) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 HOU @ OKST 82 - 75
Feb 4, 2025 OKST @ HOU 63 - 72
Dec 30, 2024 HOU @ OKST 60 - 47
Feb 6, 2024 OKST @ HOU 63 - 79
Dec 18, 2021 OKST @ HOU 61 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +33.8% more
Houston: 3.6 vs Oklahoma State: 2.4
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Houston: 7.6 vs Oklahoma State: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Houston: 37.9% vs Oklahoma State: 35.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
Houston: 78.8% vs Oklahoma State: 76.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 87.0 82
OKST Score 69.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 37.9 33.0 / 43.0
Assists 12.3 / 12.8 11.0 / 17.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.6 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 45.6 41.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 76.9 / 78.8 89.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 33.8 36.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.6 5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 8.2 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
97%TICKETS3%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
82%MONEY18%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
HOU
OKST
HOU
ML
60% 21-14
70% 26-11
66% 21-11
68% 23-11
ATS
57% 20-15
70% 26-11
66% 21-11
68% 23-11
TTL
57% 20-15
59% 22-15
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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