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UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

20-9  |  Road

62
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 8:00 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

17-13  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
0%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
KNIGHTS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (UCF)
KnightsUCF (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

97.7%

Mountaineers Cover

2.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCF -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

UCF By 1-7 points

8.0%

UCF By 8-14 points

18.6%

WVU By 1-7 points

1.7%

WVU By 8-14 points

0.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
UCF
64
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
68
UCF
72
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UCF @ WVU 62 - 77
Feb 14, 2026 WVU @ UCF 74 - 67
Mar 8, 2025 UCF @ WVU 65 - 72
Feb 20, 2024 UCF @ WVU 67 - 77
Jan 23, 2024 WVU @ UCF 59 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +24.7% more
UCF: 4.1 vs West Virginia: 3.1
Assists (L5) +18.1% more
UCF: 17.6 vs West Virginia: 14.4
Free Throw % (L5) +15.1%
UCF: 77.8% vs West Virginia: 62.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.9%
UCF: 40.4% vs West Virginia: 28.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 84.0 62
WVU Score 64.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 40.4 30.0 / 19.0
Assists 14.4 / 17.6 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.1 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 49.2 45.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 62.7 / 77.8 84.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 34.4 33.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.4 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.3 / 9.9 7.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
UCF
WVU
UCF
ML
63% 22-13
55% 18-15
76% 26-8
65% 20-11
ATS
60% 21-14
55% 18-15
76% 26-8
65% 20-11
TTL
40% 14-21
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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