Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Timberwolves TOR @ MIN

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

35-26  |  Road

107
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Target Center
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TIMBERWOLVESMIN

39-23  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
0%
📊
TIMBERWOLVES
100%
RAPTORS --
TIMBERWOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
221.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+5.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 TimberwolvesMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

30.9%

Timberwolves Cover

69.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIN +5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

TOR By 1-7 points

27.2%

TOR By 8-14 points

23.0%

MIN By 1-7 points

18.6%

MIN By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
113
TORONTO
108
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
108
TORONTO
115
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Raptors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Timberwolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Timberwolves (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
D
Sim Timberwolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Sim u226.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 TOR @ MIN 107 - 115
Feb 4, 2026 MIN @ TOR 128 - 126
Nov 21, 2024 MIN @ TOR 105 - 110
Oct 26, 2024 TOR @ MIN 101 - 112
Apr 3, 2024 TOR @ MIN 85 - 133
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +11.5%
Toronto: 83.0% vs Minnesota: 71.4%
Rebounding (L5) +24.1% more
Minnesota: 45.3 vs Toronto: 36.5
Turnovers (L5) +22.6% more
Minnesota: 16.2 vs Toronto: 13.2
Blocks (L5) +18.8% more
Minnesota: 4.7 vs Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 113.0 107
MIN Score 108.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.7 / 35.4 42.0 / 43.0
Assists 24.6 / 26.0 24.0 / 22.0
Blocks 4.7 / 4.0 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 48.3 52.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 83.0 78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 45.3 / 36.5 41.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.4 / 8.2 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 16.2 / 13.2 13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
38%MONEY62%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN Advantage
55-39-0 (58.5%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
MIN
42-52-0 (44.7%)
Margin: 2.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
TOR
MIN
TOR
ML
54% 63-53
55% 57-47
54% 50-43
55% 48-39
ATS
58% 67-49
61% 62-40-2
54% 50-43
55% 48-39
TTL
63% 72-43-1
60% 62-42
100% 93-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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