Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Hurricane @ Pirates TLSA @ ECU

TULSA

GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA

23-6  |  Road

93
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Minges Coliseum
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

11-18  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
📊
PIRATES
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Tulsa)
Golden HurricaneTLSA (-3.5) 0 PiratesECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Hurricane Cover

98.9%

Pirates Cover

1.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TLSA -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)

TLSA By 1-7 points

4.8%

TLSA By 8-14 points

13.7%

ECU By 1-7 points

0.8%

ECU By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
84
TULSA
61
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
73
TULSA
68
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Hurricane Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Hurricane (+9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Golden Hurricane (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 TLSA @ ECU 93 - 66
Jan 21, 2025 ECU @ TLSA 85 - 76
Mar 14, 2024 TLSA @ ECU 79 - 84
Jan 7, 2024 TLSA @ ECU 57 - 62
Feb 21, 2023 ECU @ TLSA 62 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +24.2% more
Tulsa: 18.1 vs East Carolina: 13.7
Free Throw % (L5) +5.7%
Tulsa: 76.8% vs East Carolina: 71.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Tulsa: 40.1% vs East Carolina: 36.7%
Blocks (L5) +42.1% more
East Carolina: 3.9 vs Tulsa: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TLSA Score 84.0 93
ECU Score 61.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 40.1 32.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.7 / 18.1 11.0 / 21.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.1 / 47.8 36.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 76.8 70.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 36.3 / 38.4 34.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.2 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 9.5 17.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TLSA Advantage
30-8-0 (79.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TLSA Advantage
20-15-1 (57.1%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +4.3
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.8
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
TLSA
ECU
TLSA
ML
55% 17-14
66% 25-13
55% 17-14
64% 23-13
ATS
52% 16-15
74% 28-10
55% 17-14
64% 23-13
TTL
61% 19-12
58% 22-16
100% 31-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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