BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
15-14 | Road
64
HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
24-5 | Home
77
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
COUGARS
0%
BEARS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
BAY By 1-7 points
5.8%
BAY By 8-14 points
1.4%
HOU By 1-7 points
16.9%
HOU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
66
BAYLOR
Houston
80
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Baylor
70
BAYLOR
Houston
75
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (-13.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 4, 2026
BAY @ HOU
64 - 77
Jan 10, 2026
HOU @ BAY
77 - 55
Mar 8, 2025
HOU @ BAY
65 - 61
Feb 10, 2025
BAY @ HOU
65 - 76
Feb 24, 2024
HOU @ BAY
82 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.6% more
Houston: 3.5
vs
Baylor: 2.7
Steals (L5)
+28.9% more
Houston: 5.9
vs
Baylor: 4.6
Rebounding (L5)
+8.6% more
Houston: 35.3
vs
Baylor: 32.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.6%
Houston: 80.7%
vs
Baylor: 72.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
66.0
64
HOU Score
80.0
77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 33.6
36.0 / 32.0
Assists
14.2 / 15.1
10.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.7
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 47.8
46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
80.7 / 72.1
75.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
35.3 / 32.5
31.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.9 / 4.6
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
8.3 / 9.7
8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
HOU
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BAY
HOU
BAY
ML
70%
26-11
58%
19-14
68%
23-11
53%
17-15
ATS
70%
26-11
58%
19-14
68%
23-11
53%
17-15
TTL
59%
22-15
45%
15-18
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
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