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OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

17-12  |  Road

111
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

20-8  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
📊
KNIGHTS
100%
COWBOYS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Oklahoma State)
CowboysOKST (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

86.4%

Knights Cover

13.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKST -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKST)

OKST By 1-7 points

21.6%

OKST By 8-14 points

27.4%

UCF By 1-7 points

9.3%

UCF By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
77
OKLAHOMA STATE
66
UCF
Simulated Score
70
OKLAHOMA STATE
72
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u167.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u167.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 OKST @ UCF 111 - 104
Jan 6, 2026 UCF @ OKST 76 - 87
Mar 5, 2025 OKST @ UCF 70 - 83
Feb 19, 2025 UCF @ OKST 95 - 104
Mar 12, 2024 OKST @ UCF 62 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Oklahoma State: 6.6 vs UCF: 5.5
Turnovers (L5) +16.1% more
Oklahoma State: 12.3 vs UCF: 10.3
Rebounding (L5) +11.0% more
Oklahoma State: 36.0 vs UCF: 32.1
Blocks (L5) +191.9% more
UCF: 4.7 vs Oklahoma State: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 77.0 111
UCF Score 66.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.6 / 33.3 32.0 / 39.0
Assists 19.3 / 14.4 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.7 / 1.6 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 42.4 46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 75.3 73.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 36.0 39.0 / 47.0
Steals 5.5 / 6.6 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.3 / 12.3 9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
UCF Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
OKST
UCF
OKST
ML
55% 18-15
60% 21-14
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
ATS
55% 18-15
57% 20-15
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
TTL
61% 20-13
57% 20-15
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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