CLEMSON
TIGERSCLEM
21-8 | Road
63
NORTH CAROLINA
TAR HEELSUNC
23-6 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
TAR HEELS
0%
TIGERS
--
TAR HEELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (North Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)
CLEM By 1-7 points
8.0%
CLEM By 8-14 points
2.2%
UNC By 1-7 points
20.1%
UNC By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Clemson
66
CLEMSON
North Carolina
78
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
Clemson
70
CLEMSON
North Carolina
75
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tar Heels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tar Heels (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Tar Heels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o141.5
Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim
u141.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 12, 2026
CLEM @ UNC
80 - 79
Mar 3, 2026
CLEM @ UNC
63 - 67
Feb 10, 2025
UNC @ CLEM
65 - 85
Feb 6, 2024
CLEM @ UNC
80 - 76
Jan 6, 2024
UNC @ CLEM
65 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+15.3% more
North Carolina: 10.4
vs
Clemson: 9.0
Rebounding (L5)
+15.1% more
North Carolina: 34.3
vs
Clemson: 29.8
Assists (L5)
+14.8% more
North Carolina: 13.8
vs
Clemson: 12.0
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.1%
North Carolina: 50.6%
vs
Clemson: 44.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLEM Score
66.0
63
UNC Score
78.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.6 / 33.9
44.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.8 / 12.0
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.7 / 3.3
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 44.5
38.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
66.7 / 74.2
73.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
34.3 / 29.8
37.0 / 36.0
Steals
4.6 / 6.3
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.4 / 9.0
9.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLEM
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
UNC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLEM
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.1
UNC
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 8.1
ATS +/-: +0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CLEM
13-21-0
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8%
Total +/-: -2.1
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
CLEM
UNC
CLEM
ML
76%
25-8
63%
22-13
69%
22-10
72%
23-9
ATS
73%
24-9
71%
25-10
69%
22-10
72%
23-9
TTL
55%
18-15
69%
24-11
100%
32-0
100%
32-0
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