BAYLOR
BEARSBAY
14-14 | Road
87
UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
20-7 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
KNIGHTS
0%
BEARS
--
KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (UCF)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)
BAY By 1-7 points
4.8%
BAY By 8-14 points
1.1%
UCF By 1-7 points
15.3%
UCF By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baylor
67
BAYLOR
UCF
82
UCF
Simulated Score
Baylor
75
BAYLOR
UCF
82
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Knights
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Knights
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Knights (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Knights (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
BAY @ UCF
87 - 86
Feb 8, 2025
UCF @ BAY
76 - 91
Jan 31, 2024
BAY @ UCF
77 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+37.2% more
UCF: 18.0
vs
Baylor: 13.1
Steals (L5)
+17.7% more
UCF: 6.3
vs
Baylor: 5.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+14.0%
UCF: 45.0%
vs
Baylor: 31.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+13.3% more
UCF: 11.9
vs
Baylor: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAY Score
67.0
87
UCF Score
82.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
45.0 / 31.0
44.0 / 39.0
Assists
18.0 / 13.1
22.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.1 / 3.0
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
50.2 / 48.1
52.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.3 / 67.2
84.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 31.2
28.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.3 / 5.4
4.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 10.5
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAY
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
UCF
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAY
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 5.3
ATS +/-: -1.1
UCF
Advantage
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +3.0
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
BAY
UCF
BAY
ML
55%
18-15
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
53%
17-15
ATS
55%
18-15
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
53%
17-15
TTL
61%
20-13
45%
15-18
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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