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COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

16-12  |  Road

62
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 12:00 PM ET
Fertitta Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

23-5  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALOES
100%
📊
COUGARS
0%
BUFFALOES --
COUGARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
BuffaloesCOLO (-3.5) 0 CougarsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffaloes Cover

46.0%

Cougars Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

COLO By 1-7 points

24.3%

COLO By 8-14 points

13.7%

HOU By 1-7 points

26.2%

HOU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
68
COLORADO
69
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
60
COLORADO
68
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cougars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cougars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cougars (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Cougars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u138.5 Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 COLO @ HOU 62 - 102
Mar 13, 2025 COLO @ HOU 68 - 77
Feb 8, 2025 HOU @ COLO 69 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +13.1%
Houston: 82.5% vs Colorado: 69.4%
Steals (L5) +31.0% more
Colorado: 7.0 vs Houston: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +30.4% more
Colorado: 12.8 vs Houston: 8.9
Assists (L5) +28.7% more
Colorado: 15.9 vs Houston: 11.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COLO Score 68.0 62
HOU Score 69.0 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.8 / 34.7 59.0 / 21.0
Assists 11.4 / 15.9 20.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.2 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.2 / 43.7 60.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 82.5 / 69.4 77.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 35.9 / 37.6 34.0 / 22.0
Steals 4.8 / 7.0 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 8.9 / 12.8 7.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COLO Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
HOU
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
COLO
HOU
COLO
ML
70% 26-11
61% 20-13
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
ATS
70% 26-11
73% 24-9
68% 23-11
69% 22-10
TTL
59% 22-15
45% 15-18
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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