MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
20-9 | Road
62
CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
9-20 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
WARRIORS
--
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
CANISIUS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CAN +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAN)
MRMK By 1-7 points
27.4%
MRMK By 8-14 points
21.6%
CAN By 1-7 points
20.1%
CAN By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Merrimack
73
MERRIMACK
Canisius
69
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
Merrimack
68
MERRIMACK
Canisius
72
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Warriors
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Griffins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Griffins (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Golden Griffins (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o129.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u129.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 27, 2026
MRMK @ CAN
62 - 67
Feb 8, 2025
CAN @ MRMK
51 - 69
Dec 6, 2024
MRMK @ CAN
60 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+45.5% more
Merrimack: 9.3
vs
Canisius: 5.1
Blocks (L5)
+44.4% more
Merrimack: 6.7
vs
Canisius: 3.8
Assists (L5)
+26.8% more
Merrimack: 13.9
vs
Canisius: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.2%
Merrimack: 87.2%
vs
Canisius: 79.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score
73.0
62
CAN Score
69.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 35.5
54.0 / 22.0
Assists
10.2 / 13.9
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.8 / 6.7
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.4 / 42.9
45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
79.0 / 87.2
94.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
32.7 / 29.9
32.0 / 25.0
Steals
5.1 / 9.3
3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 7.6
12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
MRMK
CAN
MRMK
ML
55%
17-14
47%
16-18
68%
21-10
65%
22-12
ATS
65%
20-11
53%
18-16
68%
21-10
65%
22-12
TTL
58%
18-13
62%
21-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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