LONG BEACH STATE
BEACHLBSU
8-20 | Road
92
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
12-16 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
BEACH
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
BEACH
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
LBSU By 1-7 points
13.7%
LBSU By 8-14 points
4.8%
CP By 1-7 points
25.3%
CP By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Long Beach State
69
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal Poly
77
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
Long Beach State
68
LONG BEACH STATE
Cal Poly
75
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mustangs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mustangs (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim
Mustangs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 26, 2026
LBSU @ CP
92 - 102
Jan 3, 2026
CP @ LBSU
66 - 74
Mar 8, 2025
CP @ LBSU
83 - 69
Jan 25, 2025
LBSU @ CP
69 - 78
Feb 10, 2024
CP @ LBSU
68 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+17.4% more
Cal Poly: 36.9
vs
Long Beach State: 31.5
Steals (L5)
+13.5% more
Cal Poly: 7.5
vs
Long Beach State: 6.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.4%
Cal Poly: 82.4%
vs
Long Beach State: 76.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.4%
Cal Poly: 45.6%
vs
Long Beach State: 41.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LBSU Score
69.0
92
CP Score
77.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 30.5
35.0 / 33.0
Assists
12.5 / 12.6
14.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.8 / 4.8
2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.6 / 41.2
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
82.4 / 76.0
95.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
36.9 / 31.5
42.0 / 38.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.6
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 14.2
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LBSU
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CP
Advantage
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LBSU
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
CP
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LBSU
19-10-1
O: 65.5% / U: 34.5%
Total +/-: +4.7
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
LBSU
CP
LBSU
ML
58%
19-14
55%
17-14
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
ATS
64%
21-12
68%
21-10
58%
19-14
65%
20-11
TTL
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
SMU's Rise from NCAA Scandal to ACC Contender: A New Sheriff in …
The SMU Mustangs mascot will be ready for non-conference play. M…
Cameron Flukey sidelined for Baseball at the Beach.
Nyair McCoy pledges to the University of Mississippi
Sep 6, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes quarterback Is…