Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ Roadrunners ECU @ UTSA

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

9-18  |  Road

82
FINAL
Wed, Feb 25 • 8:00 PM ET
UTSA Convocation Center
View Odds Details →

UTSA

ROADRUNNERSUTSA

5-22  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
0%
📊
ROADRUNNERS
100%
PIRATES --
ROADRUNNERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (East Carolina)
PiratesECU (-3.5) 0 RoadrunnersUTSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

95.5%

Roadrunners Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ECU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ECU By 1-7 points

12.2%

ECU By 8-14 points

23.0%

UTSA By 1-7 points

3.3%

UTSA By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
EAST CAROLINA
58
UTSA
Simulated Score
68
EAST CAROLINA
72
UTSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Roadrunners Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Roadrunners (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 25, 2026 ECU @ UTSA 82 - 81
Feb 11, 2026 UTSA @ ECU 72 - 88
Mar 13, 2025 UTSA @ ECU 65 - 70
Feb 23, 2025 UTSA @ ECU 89 - 96
Feb 8, 2025 ECU @ UTSA 80 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +29.0% more
East Carolina: 4.4 vs UTSA: 3.1
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
East Carolina: 38.8 vs UTSA: 33.5
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
East Carolina: 42.8% vs UTSA: 41.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
UTSA: 33.0% vs East Carolina: 27.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 75.0 82
UTSA Score 58.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 27.6 45.0 / 35.0
Assists 11.0 / 11.4 19.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.1 / 4.4 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 41.0 / 42.8 57.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 70.9 / 67.3 90.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 33.5 / 38.8 25.0 / 29.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.9 10.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 10.2 17.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
88%MONEY12%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU Advantage
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
UTSA
5-25-0 (16.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU Advantage
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
UTSA
10-18-0 (35.7%)
Margin: -11.3 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTSA
ECU
UTSA
ECU
ML
83% 24-5
55% 17-14
48% 14-15
55% 17-14
ATS
72% 21-8
52% 16-15
50% 15-15
55% 17-14
TTL
66% 19-10
61% 19-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 12 hours, 41 minutes ago
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 12 hours ago
ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips Shrugs Off Realignment Buzz, Decla…
observer_reporter 1 day, 23 hours ago
Kansas Basketball Secures Melvin Council Jr. for Unprecedented S…
realgm 3 days, 19 hours ago
Houston Cougars Erase 17-Point Deficit to Stun UCF in Space Game
si 4 days, 23 hours ago