CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
9-19 | Road
47
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
MOUNTAINEERSMSM
13-15 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
MOUNTAINEERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.0
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.0 points (Mount St. Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSM -19.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSM)
CAN By 1-7 points
2.2%
CAN By 8-14 points
0.4%
MSM By 1-7 points
9.3%
MSM By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Canisius
58
CANISIUS
Mount St. Mary's
77
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Simulated Score
Canisius
62
CANISIUS
Mount St. Mary's
72
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mountaineers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mountaineers (-7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Sim
Mountaineers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
u137.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 22, 2026
CAN @ MSM
47 - 68
Jan 17, 2026
MSM @ CAN
78 - 68
Feb 16, 2025
MSM @ CAN
73 - 66
Mar 12, 2024
CAN @ MSM
77 - 61
Mar 1, 2024
MSM @ CAN
56 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+58.5% more
Mount St. Mary's: 5.7
vs
Canisius: 3.6
Assists (L5)
+15.2% more
Mount St. Mary's: 14.2
vs
Canisius: 12.3
Turnovers (L5)
+11.4% more
Mount St. Mary's: 14.8
vs
Canisius: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.2%
Mount St. Mary's: 49.2%
vs
Canisius: 41.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CAN Score
58.0
47
MSM Score
77.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.1 / 32.3
32.0 / 22.0
Assists
14.2 / 12.3
14.0 / 6.0
Blocks
2.2 / 4.6
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
49.2 / 41.0
45.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
66.1 / 79.0
79.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 35.0
35.0 / 28.0
Steals
5.7 / 3.6
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 13.2
13.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
MSM
Advantage
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
MSM
Advantage
17-13-1
(56.7%)
Margin: -2.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSM
CAN
MSM
CAN
ML
53%
17-15
55%
17-14
61%
19-12
68%
21-10
ATS
62%
20-12
65%
20-11
61%
19-12
68%
21-10
TTL
81%
26-6
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
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