SIU EDWARDSVILLE
COUGARSSIUE
17-11 | Road
53
TENNESSEE STATE
TIGERSTNST
18-9 | Home
80
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
TIGERS
100%
COUGARS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (SIU Edwardsville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SIUE -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIUE)
SIUE By 1-7 points
26.2%
SIUE By 8-14 points
25.3%
TNST By 1-7 points
15.3%
TNST By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
SIU Edwardsville
76
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Tennessee State
69
TENNESSEE STATE
Simulated Score
SIU Edwardsville
71
SIU EDWARDSVILLE
Tennessee State
75
TENNESSEE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cougars
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cougars (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
SIUE @ TNST
53 - 80
Jan 22, 2026
TNST @ SIUE
66 - 74
Mar 7, 2025
TNST @ SIUE
69 - 71
Feb 15, 2025
TNST @ SIUE
72 - 84
Jan 16, 2025
SIUE @ TNST
87 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.6% more
SIU Edwardsville: 4.3
vs
Tennessee State: 2.7
Turnovers (L5)
+12.1% more
SIU Edwardsville: 11.7
vs
Tennessee State: 10.3
Steals (L5)
+27.0% more
Tennessee State: 9.0
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 7.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.1%
Tennessee State: 79.8%
vs
SIU Edwardsville: 64.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SIUE Score
76.0
53
TNST Score
69.0
80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.3 / 31.0
42.0 / 33.0
Assists
11.0 / 11.1
14.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.3
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.4 / 41.9
57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
79.8 / 64.7
77.0 / 27.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 36.4
37.0 / 21.0
Steals
9.0 / 7.1
9.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 11.7
12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIUE
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
TNST
Advantage
23-10-0
(69.7%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIUE
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
TNST
Advantage
18-11-1
(62.1%)
Margin: 5.9
ATS +/-: +3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
SIUE
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -4.5
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TNST
SIUE
TNST
SIUE
ML
52%
16-15
65%
20-11
63%
17-10
60%
18-12
ATS
68%
21-10
55%
17-14
64%
18-10
60%
18-12
TTL
52%
16-15
48%
15-16
100%
28-0
100%
30-0
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