Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cardinal @ Golden Bears STAN @ CAL

STANFORD

CARDINALSTAN

16-10  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Haas Pavilion
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

GOLDEN BEARSCAL

18-8  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINAL
100%
📊
GOLDEN BEARS
0%
CARDINAL --
GOLDEN BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (California)
CardinalSTAN (-3.5) 0 Golden BearsCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinal Cover

46.0%

Golden Bears Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

STAN By 1-7 points

24.3%

STAN By 8-14 points

13.7%

CAL By 1-7 points

26.2%

CAL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
62
STANFORD
63
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
72
STANFORD
78
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Bears (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Golden Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 STAN @ CAL 66 - 72
Jan 24, 2026 CAL @ STAN 78 - 66
Mar 12, 2025 CAL @ STAN 73 - 78
Feb 22, 2025 CAL @ STAN 61 - 66
Dec 7, 2024 STAN @ CAL 89 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +34.6% more
California: 14.3 vs Stanford: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
California: 41.6% vs Stanford: 35.2%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.7%
California: 77.0% vs Stanford: 71.3%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.2%
California: 47.6% vs Stanford: 44.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 62.0 66
CAL Score 63.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.6 / 35.2 35.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.3 / 10.7 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.8 / 4.6 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 47.6 / 44.4 35.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 71.3 83.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 31.4 46.0 / 40.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.6 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 10.9 10.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
CAL Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
16-16-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
CAL Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.9
CAL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
STAN
CAL
STAN
ML
61% 20-13
48% 16-17
77% 24-7
50% 16-16
ATS
64% 21-12
48% 16-17
78% 25-7
50% 16-16
TTL
70% 23-10
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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