Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ 49ers ECU @ CLT

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

9-17  |  Road

56
FINAL
Sat, Feb 21 • 12:00 PM ET
Halton Arena
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

49ERSCLT

13-13  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
0%
📊
49ERS
100%
PIRATES --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PiratesECU (-3.5) 0 49ersCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

34.5%

49ers Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CLT +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLT)

ECU By 1-7 points

27.4%

ECU By 8-14 points

21.6%

CLT By 1-7 points

20.1%

CLT By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
73
EAST CAROLINA
69
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
68
EAST CAROLINA
72
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI 49ers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 21, 2026 ECU @ CLT 56 - 68
Jan 18, 2026 CLT @ ECU 73 - 70
Mar 2, 2025 CLT @ ECU 76 - 78
Feb 15, 2025 ECU @ CLT 75 - 59
Mar 9, 2024 CLT @ ECU 82 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.2% more
East Carolina: 5.1 vs Charlotte: 3.1
Steals (L5) +31.2% more
East Carolina: 6.3 vs Charlotte: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +19.1% more
East Carolina: 39.2 vs Charlotte: 31.7
Turnovers (L5) +40.2% more
Charlotte: 13.1 vs East Carolina: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 73.0 56
CLT Score 69.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 31.4 27.0 / 20.0
Assists 13.4 / 13.1 14.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.1 / 5.1 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 47.8 / 46.7 40.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 70.4 69.0 / 61.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 39.2 43.0 / 38.0
Steals 4.3 / 6.3 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 9.3 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
34%MONEY66%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
CLT Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
CLT Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -1.1 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
CLT
19-13-1
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
ECU
CLT
ECU
ML
62% 21-13
55% 17-14
67% 22-11
55% 17-14
ATS
68% 23-11
52% 16-15
67% 22-11
55% 17-14
TTL
65% 22-12
61% 19-12
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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