PACIFIC
TIGERSPAC
17-12 | Road
62
GONZAGA
BULLDOGSGONZ
26-2 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
BULLDOGS
0%
TIGERS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Gonzaga)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GONZ -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)
PAC By 1-7 points
9.3%
PAC By 8-14 points
2.7%
GONZ By 1-7 points
21.6%
GONZ By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pacific
68
PACIFIC
Gonzaga
79
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
Pacific
60
PACIFIC
Gonzaga
85
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulldogs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bulldogs (+21.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bulldogs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
PAC @ GONZ
62 - 71
Feb 8, 2025
GONZ @ PAC
78 - 61
Feb 17, 2024
PAC @ GONZ
76 - 102
Jan 27, 2024
GONZ @ PAC
82 - 73
Jan 21, 2023
GONZ @ PAC
99 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+143.6% more
Gonzaga: 9.3
vs
Pacific: 3.8
Blocks (L5)
+76.9% more
Gonzaga: 3.5
vs
Pacific: 2.0
Assists (L5)
+21.5% more
Gonzaga: 18.6
vs
Pacific: 15.3
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Gonzaga: 53.5%
vs
Pacific: 45.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PAC Score
68.0
62
GONZ Score
79.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
25.9 / 40.8
26.0 / 38.0
Assists
18.6 / 15.3
7.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.5 / 2.0
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
53.5 / 45.2
43.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
78.2 / 75.1
62.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
35.6 / 35.6
32.0 / 36.0
Steals
9.3 / 3.8
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
8.1 / 11.8
4.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PAC
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
GONZ
Advantage
31-4-0
(88.6%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PAC
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +2.0
GONZ
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PAC
10-19-2
O: 34.5% / U: 65.5%
Total +/-: -2.0
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
PAC
GONZ
PAC
ML
71%
25-10
45%
15-18
69%
20-9
80%
24-6
ATS
69%
24-11
55%
18-15
69%
20-9
80%
24-6
TTL
57%
20-15
58%
19-14
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
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