WESTERN KENTUCKY
HILLTOPPERSWKU
15-11 | Road
94
LIBERTY
FLAMESLIB
23-3 | Home
73
AI Model Win Probability
HILLTOPPERS
100%
FLAMES
0%
HILLTOPPERS
--
FLAMES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Liberty)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LIB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)
WKU By 1-7 points
24.3%
WKU By 8-14 points
13.7%
LIB By 1-7 points
26.2%
LIB By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Western Kentucky
80
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Liberty
81
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
Western Kentucky
65
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Liberty
70
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Flames
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Flames
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Flames (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Flames (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
WKU @ LIB
94 - 73
Jan 21, 2026
LIB @ WKU
76 - 69
Mar 8, 2025
LIB @ WKU
90 - 61
Jan 2, 2025
WKU @ LIB
71 - 70
Mar 9, 2024
WKU @ LIB
79 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+120.0% more
Liberty: 2.5
vs
Western Kentucky: 1.2
Assists (L5)
+20.7% more
Liberty: 17.8
vs
Western Kentucky: 14.8
Steals (L5)
+8.8% more
Liberty: 7.1
vs
Western Kentucky: 6.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.3%
Liberty: 50.6%
vs
Western Kentucky: 42.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WKU Score
80.0
94
LIB Score
81.0
73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.0 / 34.4
29.0 / 48.0
Assists
17.8 / 14.8
12.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.5 / 1.2
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 42.2
56.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
71.5 / 83.2
59.0 / 96.0
Rebounding
28.5 / 34.2
20.0 / 34.0
Steals
7.1 / 6.5
6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 10.2
12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
LIB
Advantage
26-8-0
(76.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
Advantage
15-15-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 3.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
LIB
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.2
LIB
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
WKU
LIB
WKU
ML
50%
17-17
56%
18-14
53%
18-16
66%
21-11
ATS
62%
21-13
53%
17-15
53%
18-16
66%
21-11
TTL
41%
14-20
56%
18-14
100%
34-0
100%
32-0
Contextual Game News
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