MISSOURI
TIGERSMIZ
18-8 | Road
86
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
19-7 | Home
94
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
0%
RAZORBACKS
100%
TIGERS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARK +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
MIZ By 1-7 points
27.4%
MIZ By 8-14 points
21.6%
ARK By 1-7 points
20.1%
ARK By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Missouri
79
MISSOURI
Arkansas
75
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Missouri
70
MISSOURI
Arkansas
75
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Razorbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Razorbacks (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Razorbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
ARK @ MIZ
88 - 84
Feb 21, 2026
MIZ @ ARK
86 - 94
Feb 22, 2025
MIZ @ ARK
85 - 92
Jan 18, 2025
ARK @ MIZ
65 - 83
Feb 24, 2024
MIZ @ ARK
73 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+40.3% more
Missouri: 11.7
vs
Arkansas: 7.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.3%
Missouri: 40.0%
vs
Arkansas: 37.7%
Blocks (L5)
+127.2% more
Arkansas: 7.3
vs
Missouri: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+13.1% more
Arkansas: 15.9
vs
Missouri: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score
79.0
86
ARK Score
75.0
94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 40.0
44.0 / 33.0
Assists
15.9 / 14.1
20.0 / 18.0
Blocks
7.3 / 3.2
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
52.8 / 45.1
52.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 70.1
88.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 34.7
31.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.9 / 5.8
5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
7.0 / 11.7
5.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 3.8
ATS +/-: -2.3
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.3
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
MIZ
ARK
MIZ
ML
68%
25-12
61%
20-13
81%
25-6
69%
22-10
ATS
70%
26-11
70%
23-10
81%
25-6
69%
22-10
TTL
57%
21-16
79%
26-7
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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