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BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

35-19  |  Road

121
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

29-26  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
📊
WARRIORS
0%
CELTICS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
GOLDEN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Golden State)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

46.0%

Warriors Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GS)

BOS By 1-7 points

24.3%

BOS By 8-14 points

13.7%

GS By 1-7 points

26.2%

GS By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
112
BOSTON
113
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
110
BOSTON
115
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Warriors (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o210.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Sim u210.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 GS @ BOS 99 - 120
Feb 19, 2026 BOS @ GS 121 - 110
Jan 20, 2025 BOS @ GS 125 - 85
Nov 6, 2024 GS @ BOS 118 - 112
Mar 3, 2024 GS @ BOS 88 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.9% more
Golden State: 10.0 vs Boston: 6.8
Assists (L5) +26.3% more
Golden State: 31.1 vs Boston: 24.6
Turnovers (L5) +25.2% more
Golden State: 16.1 vs Boston: 12.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Golden State: 33.5% vs Boston: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 112.0 121
GS Score 113.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 31.7 36.0 / 43.0
Assists 31.1 / 24.6 30.0 / 36.0
Blocks 2.5 / 5.8 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 45.2 45.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 75.0 50.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 39.9 / 48.2 40.0 / 54.0
Steals 10.0 / 6.8 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 16.1 / 12.9 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
BOS
GS
BOS
ML
55% 95-79
57% 61-46
58% 49-35
53% 47-41
ATS
58% 101-73
59% 61-43-3
58% 49-35
53% 47-41
TTL
77% 134-40
56% 60-47
100% 84-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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