Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Horned Frogs @ Knights TCU @ UCF

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

16-9  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Feb 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

17-7  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
HORNED FROGS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UCF)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

46.0%

Knights Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

TCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

TCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

UCF By 1-7 points

26.2%

UCF By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
64
TCU
65
UCF
Simulated Score
75
TCU
78
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 17, 2026 TCU @ UCF 71 - 82
Mar 1, 2025 UCF @ TCU 78 - 89
Jan 25, 2025 TCU @ UCF 58 - 85
Mar 9, 2024 UCF @ TCU 79 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.3%
UCF: 80.2% vs TCU: 70.9%
Steals (L5) +24.7% more
TCU: 7.6 vs UCF: 5.7
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
TCU: 4.6 vs UCF: 3.6
Rebounding (L5) +12.7% more
TCU: 36.7 vs UCF: 32.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 64.0 71
UCF Score 65.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 35.5 40.0 / 19.0
Assists 12.9 / 14.7 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 4.6 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 43.4 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 80.2 / 70.9 90.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 36.7 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.6 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.2 12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UCF
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
TCU
UCF
TCU
ML
55% 18-15
74% 26-9
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
ATS
55% 18-15
74% 26-9
65% 20-11
63% 19-11
TTL
61% 20-13
66% 23-12
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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