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HOUSTON

COUGARSHOU

23-2  |  Road

67
FINAL
Mon, Feb 16 • 9:00 PM ET
Hilton Coliseum
View Odds Details →

IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

22-3  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
COUGARS
0%
📊
CYCLONES
100%
COUGARS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Houston)
CougarsHOU (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cougars Cover

99.8%

Cyclones Cover

0.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around HOU -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-7 points

1.4%

HOU By 8-14 points

5.8%

ISU By 1-7 points

0.1%

ISU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
75
HOUSTON
46
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
63
HOUSTON
68
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cougars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cyclones Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cougars (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim Cyclones (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim u135.5 Win
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 16, 2026 HOU @ ISU 67 - 70
Feb 22, 2025 ISU @ HOU 59 - 68
Mar 16, 2024 ISU @ HOU 69 - 41
Feb 19, 2024 ISU @ HOU 65 - 73
Jan 9, 2024 HOU @ ISU 53 - 57
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +35.6% more
Houston: 4.3 vs Iowa State: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5) +19.1%
Houston: 72.6% vs Iowa State: 53.5%
Turnovers (L5) +31.0% more
Iowa State: 11.2 vs Houston: 8.6
Assists (L5) +16.7% more
Iowa State: 16.9 vs Houston: 14.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 75.0 67
ISU Score 46.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.2 / 32.8 41.0 / 35.0
Assists 16.9 / 14.5 15.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.8 / 4.3 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 44.8 49.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 53.5 / 72.6 50.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 37.3 31.0 / 35.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.1 5.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 8.6 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
30-7-0 (81.1%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
ISU
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
ISU Advantage
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -0.9
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
HOU
ISU
HOU
ML
57% 21-16
70% 26-11
76% 26-8
68% 23-11
ATS
62% 23-14
70% 26-11
76% 26-8
68% 23-11
TTL
54% 20-17
59% 22-15
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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