UC SANTA BARBARA
GAUCHOSUCSB
17-8 | Road
79
CAL POLY
MUSTANGSCP
10-16 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
GAUCHOS
100%
MUSTANGS
0%
GAUCHOS
--
MUSTANGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
CAL POLY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (Cal Poly)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CP -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CP)
UCSB By 1-7 points
0.0%
UCSB By 8-14 points
0.0%
CP By 1-7 points
0.1%
CP By 8-14 points
0.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Santa Barbara
54
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal Poly
93
CAL POLY
Simulated Score
UC Santa Barbara
78
UC SANTA BARBARA
Cal Poly
65
CAL POLY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gauchos
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mustangs (+4.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim
Gauchos (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u159.5
Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
u159.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 14, 2026
UCSB @ CP
79 - 89
Jan 22, 2026
CP @ UCSB
67 - 107
Feb 27, 2025
CP @ UCSB
77 - 96
Jan 11, 2025
UCSB @ CP
75 - 72
Feb 29, 2024
CP @ UCSB
75 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+115.5% more
Cal Poly: 2.8
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 1.3
Turnovers (L5)
+45.0% more
Cal Poly: 18.0
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 12.4
Steals (L5)
+24.4% more
Cal Poly: 8.6
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 6.9
Rebounding (L5)
+22.7% more
Cal Poly: 40.0
vs
UC Santa Barbara: 32.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSB Score
54.0
79
CP Score
93.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 37.9
37.0 / 38.0
Assists
15.4 / 14.2
12.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.3
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.3 / 48.4
53.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
84.2 / 75.3
81.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
40.0 / 32.6
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
8.6 / 6.9
3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
18.0 / 12.4
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSB
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CP
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSB
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: 4.8
ATS +/-: -1.0
CP
Advantage
16-14-1
(53.3%)
Margin: -2.9
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSB
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.1
CP
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CP
UCSB
CP
UCSB
ML
58%
19-14
59%
19-13
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
ATS
64%
21-12
62%
20-12
58%
19-14
72%
23-9
TTL
61%
20-13
47%
15-17
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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