Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Eagles TNST @ MORE

TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

17-8  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:30 PM ET
Ellis T. Johnson Arena
View Odds Details →

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

14-12  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
TIGERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
114.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Morehead State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 EaglesMORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

27.4%

Eagles Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)

TNST By 1-7 points

16.9%

TNST By 8-14 points

6.8%

MORE By 1-7 points

26.8%

MORE By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
54
TENNESSEE STATE
60
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
65
TENNESSEE STATE
72
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u148.5 Loss
Proj Total: 114.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 MORE @ TNST 67 - 93
Feb 14, 2026 TNST @ MORE 86 - 94
Jan 15, 2026 MORE @ TNST 100 - 105
Feb 27, 2025 MORE @ TNST 55 - 64
Dec 21, 2024 TNST @ MORE 68 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +14.0% more
Tennessee State: 3.2 vs Morehead State: 2.8
Steals (L5) +13.7% more
Tennessee State: 6.7 vs Morehead State: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 54.0 86
MORE Score 60.0 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 32.8 44.0 / 36.0
Assists 12.2 / 11.5 12.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.2 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.4 / 45.6 60.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 81.2 / 81.8 79.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 34.2 / 37.0 36.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.8 / 6.7 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 10.7 14.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST Advantage
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
MORE
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
MORE
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
TNST
MORE
TNST
ML
62% 20-12
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
63% 17-10
ATS
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
64% 18-10
TTL
53% 17-15
52% 16-15
100% 31-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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