Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Pirates @ Owls ECU @ RICE

EAST CAROLINA

PIRATESECU

8-16  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 2:00 PM ET
Tudor Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

RICE

OWLSRICE

11-14  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
📊
OWLS
0%
PIRATES --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
98.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
RICE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Rice)
PiratesECU (-3.5) 0 OwlsRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

21.2%

Owls Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RICE -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

ECU By 1-7 points

13.7%

ECU By 8-14 points

4.8%

RICE By 1-7 points

25.3%

RICE By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
45
EAST CAROLINA
53
RICE
Simulated Score
68
EAST CAROLINA
72
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 98.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 ECU @ RICE 85 - 75
Jan 28, 2026 RICE @ ECU 83 - 77
Feb 5, 2025 RICE @ ECU 73 - 60
Feb 24, 2024 ECU @ RICE 52 - 70
Nov 24, 2019 ECU @ RICE 69 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.1% more
Rice: 10.7 vs East Carolina: 8.7
Steals (L5) +12.3% more
Rice: 6.0 vs East Carolina: 5.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Rice: 32.9% vs East Carolina: 29.8%
Blocks (L5) +31.1% more
East Carolina: 5.5 vs Rice: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 45.0 85
RICE Score 53.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.9 / 29.8 26.0 / 47.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.6 13.0 / 14.0
Blocks 3.8 / 5.5 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 44.4 38.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 61.3 / 79.2 88.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 37.3 36.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.0 / 5.4 7.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 8.7 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
RICE Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.9 ATS +/-: -2.5
RICE Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.9
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
ECU
RICE
ECU
ML
53% 16-14
55% 17-14
53% 16-14
55% 17-14
ATS
60% 18-12
52% 16-15
53% 16-14
55% 17-14
TTL
77% 23-7
61% 19-12
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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