Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Knights WVU @ UCF

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

15-9  |  Road

74
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 6:00 PM ET
Addition Financial Arena
View Odds Details →

UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

17-6  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
KNIGHTS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (UCF)
MountaineersWVU (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

1.4%

Knights Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

WVU By 1-7 points

1.1%

WVU By 8-14 points

0.1%

UCF By 1-7 points

5.8%

UCF By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
74
WEST VIRGINIA
96
UCF
Simulated Score
70
WEST VIRGINIA
72
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knights Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knights Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knights (-3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Knights (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u138.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UCF @ WVU 62 - 77
Feb 14, 2026 WVU @ UCF 74 - 67
Mar 8, 2025 UCF @ WVU 65 - 72
Feb 20, 2024 UCF @ WVU 67 - 77
Jan 23, 2024 WVU @ UCF 59 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +18.8%
UCF: 79.8% vs West Virginia: 61.0%
Assists (L5) +16.1% more
UCF: 13.4 vs West Virginia: 11.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +10.7%
UCF: 33.8% vs West Virginia: 23.1%
Turnovers (L5) +14.7% more
West Virginia: 11.2 vs UCF: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WVU Score 74.0 74
UCF Score 96.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.8 / 23.1 33.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.4 / 11.5 12.0 / 9.0
Blocks 1.8 / 1.7 7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.0 / 42.5 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 79.8 / 61.0 81.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 32.6 / 33.5 31.0 / 37.0
Steals 4.5 / 5.1 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 11.2 13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WVU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WVU Advantage
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
UCF
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
WVU
UCF
WVU
ML
55% 18-15
63% 22-13
65% 20-11
76% 26-8
ATS
55% 18-15
60% 21-14
65% 20-11
76% 26-8
TTL
61% 20-13
40% 14-21
100% 31-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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