IONA
GAELSIONA
14-11 | Road
69
CANISIUS
GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN
8-17 | Home
63
AI Model Win Probability
GAELS
100%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
0%
GAELS
--
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CANISIUS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Canisius)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CAN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAN)
IONA By 1-7 points
20.1%
IONA By 8-14 points
9.3%
CAN By 1-7 points
27.4%
CAN By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Iona
62
IONA
Canisius
66
CANISIUS
Simulated Score
Iona
78
IONA
Canisius
65
CANISIUS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Golden Griffins
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gaels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Golden Griffins (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Gaels (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim
u138.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 13, 2026
IONA @ CAN
69 - 63
Jan 11, 2026
CAN @ IONA
48 - 74
Mar 2, 2025
IONA @ CAN
82 - 52
Jan 16, 2025
CAN @ IONA
61 - 82
Feb 10, 2024
IONA @ CAN
69 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+40.3% more
Canisius: 12.4
vs
Iona: 8.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.9%
Canisius: 70.1%
vs
Iona: 66.2%
Assists (L5)
+19.5% more
Iona: 13.5
vs
Canisius: 10.9
Steals (L5)
+16.8% more
Iona: 6.9
vs
Canisius: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IONA Score
62.0
69
CAN Score
66.0
63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 34.6
35.0 / 37.0
Assists
10.9 / 13.5
14.0 / 10.0
Blocks
2.5 / 2.7
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
38.0 / 42.4
42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
70.1 / 66.2
60.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
30.3 / 30.6
35.0 / 31.0
Steals
5.7 / 6.9
3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 8.9
15.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IONA
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
CAN
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IONA
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: 0.0
CAN
13-16-0
(44.8%)
Margin: -7.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IONA
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -1.6
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAN
IONA
CAN
IONA
ML
55%
17-14
41%
13-19
68%
21-10
62%
20-12
ATS
65%
20-11
53%
17-15
68%
21-10
62%
20-12
TTL
58%
18-13
66%
21-11
100%
31-0
100%
32-0
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