UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
4-19 | Road
72
EAST CAROLINA
PIRATESECU
7-16 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
PIRATES
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-31.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +31.0 points (East Carolina)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ECU -31.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)
UTSA By 1-7 points
0.1%
UTSA By 8-14 points
0.0%
ECU By 1-7 points
0.8%
ECU By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
60
UTSA
East Carolina
91
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
UTSA
66
UTSA
East Carolina
75
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (-10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 25, 2026
ECU @ UTSA
82 - 81
Feb 11, 2026
UTSA @ ECU
72 - 88
Mar 13, 2025
UTSA @ ECU
65 - 70
Feb 23, 2025
UTSA @ ECU
89 - 96
Feb 8, 2025
ECU @ UTSA
80 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.7% more
East Carolina: 11.3
vs
UTSA: 9.3
Rebounding (L5)
+9.4% more
East Carolina: 33.5
vs
UTSA: 30.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
East Carolina: 31.3%
vs
UTSA: 27.8%
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
East Carolina: 73.9%
vs
UTSA: 71.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
60.0
72
ECU Score
91.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.3 / 27.8
27.0 / 33.0
Assists
11.3 / 9.3
18.0 / 16.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.5
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 44.1
46.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
73.9 / 71.6
90.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 30.6
45.0 / 43.0
Steals
5.6 / 5.8
5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.1 / 14.1
8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
ECU
Advantage
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
ECU
Advantage
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
UTSA
ECU
UTSA
ML
55%
17-14
83%
24-5
55%
17-14
48%
14-15
ATS
52%
16-15
72%
21-8
55%
17-14
50%
15-15
TTL
61%
19-12
66%
19-10
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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