ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
17-6 | Road
91
LSU
TIGERSLSU
14-9 | Home
62
AI Model Win Probability
RAZORBACKS
100%
TIGERS
0%
RAZORBACKS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (LSU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LSU -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)
ARK By 1-7 points
5.8%
ARK By 8-14 points
1.4%
LSU By 1-7 points
16.9%
LSU By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas
60
ARKANSAS
LSU
74
LSU
Simulated Score
Arkansas
73
ARKANSAS
LSU
76
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Tigers (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 10, 2026
ARK @ LSU
91 - 62
Jan 24, 2026
LSU @ ARK
81 - 85
Feb 12, 2025
LSU @ ARK
58 - 70
Jan 14, 2025
ARK @ LSU
74 - 78
Mar 6, 2024
LSU @ ARK
83 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+61.6% more
LSU: 11.2
vs
Arkansas: 6.9
Steals (L5)
+34.7% more
LSU: 6.7
vs
Arkansas: 5.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.8%
LSU: 77.1%
vs
Arkansas: 68.3%
Blocks (L5)
+46.3% more
Arkansas: 5.5
vs
LSU: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARK Score
60.0
91
LSU Score
74.0
62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 30.1
14.0 / 25.0
Assists
14.0 / 17.7
12.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.5
0.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
45.3 / 52.2
31.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
77.1 / 68.3
63.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 33.3
43.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.7 / 5.0
6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 6.9
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
ARK
LSU
ARK
ML
62%
20-12
68%
25-12
62%
20-12
81%
25-6
ATS
66%
21-11
70%
26-11
62%
20-12
81%
25-6
TTL
72%
23-9
57%
21-16
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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