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SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

15-7  |  Road

86
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 2:00 PM ET
Petersen Events Center
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PANTHERSPITT

9-14  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
0%
📊
PANTHERS
100%
MUSTANGS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
119.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SMU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (SMU)
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 PanthersPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

69.1%

Panthers Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SMU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)

SMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SMU By 8-14 points

23.0%

PITT By 1-7 points

18.6%

PITT By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
62
SMU
57
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
72
SMU
78
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mustangs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mustangs (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.5 Loss
Proj Total: 119.0
D
Sim u147.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 SMU @ PITT 86 - 67
Feb 11, 2025 PITT @ SMU 63 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.6% more
SMU: 14.8 vs Pittsburgh: 11.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.8%
SMU: 42.4% vs Pittsburgh: 29.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
SMU: 47.6% vs Pittsburgh: 38.5%
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
SMU: 67.8% vs Pittsburgh: 60.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 62.0 86
PITT Score 57.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 42.4 24.0 / 43.0
Assists 11.6 / 14.8 15.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.7 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 38.5 / 47.6 36.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 60.4 / 67.8 79.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 37.0 35.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.7 / 5.3 3.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 11.6 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
PITT
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
PITT Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
PITT
17-15-1
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
SMU
PITT
SMU
ML
58% 19-14
59% 20-14
45% 15-18
73% 24-9
ATS
64% 21-12
62% 21-13
45% 15-18
73% 24-9
TTL
61% 20-13
56% 19-15
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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