Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Tigers UGA @ LSU

GEORGIA

BULLDOGSUGA

16-6  |  Road

83
FINAL
Sat, Feb 7 • 6:00 PM ET
Pete Maravich Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

LSU

TIGERSLSU

14-8  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
TIGERS
0%
BULLDOGS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
LSU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (LSU)
BulldogsUGA (-3.5) 0 TigersLSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

1.4%

Tigers Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LSU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LSU)

UGA By 1-7 points

1.1%

UGA By 8-14 points

0.1%

LSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

LSU By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
64
GEORGIA
86
LSU
Simulated Score
75
GEORGIA
78
LSU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 UGA @ LSU 83 - 71
Feb 5, 2025 LSU @ UGA 62 - 81
Feb 27, 2024 UGA @ LSU 66 - 67
Jan 24, 2024 LSU @ UGA 66 - 68
Mar 8, 2023 LSU @ UGA 72 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +22.3% more
LSU: 15.1 vs Georgia: 12.3
Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
LSU: 46.9% vs Georgia: 43.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
LSU: 31.3% vs Georgia: 29.7%
Blocks (L5) +37.7% more
Georgia: 5.5 vs LSU: 3.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 64.0 83
LSU Score 86.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.3 / 29.7 22.0 / 40.0
Assists 15.1 / 12.3 12.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.5 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 43.4 42.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 76.3 83.0 / 54.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 34.6 34.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.3 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 10.0 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
LSU
--
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA Advantage
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
LSU
--
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.9
LSU
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LSU
UGA
LSU
UGA
ML
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
56% 18-14
ATS
66% 21-11
61% 20-13
62% 20-12
56% 18-14
TTL
72% 23-9
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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