UCF
KNIGHTSUCF
17-4 | Road
55
HOUSTON
COUGARSHOU
19-2 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
COUGARS
0%
KNIGHTS
--
COUGARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
117.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
UCF By 1-7 points
1.4%
UCF By 8-14 points
0.2%
HOU By 1-7 points
6.8%
HOU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UCF
48
UCF
Houston
69
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
UCF
61
UCF
Houston
72
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cougars
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cougars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cougars (-15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Cougars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 117.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 4, 2026
UCF @ HOU
55 - 79
Jan 18, 2025
HOU @ UCF
69 - 68
Mar 6, 2024
HOU @ UCF
67 - 59
Jan 20, 2024
UCF @ HOU
42 - 57
Jan 25, 2023
HOU @ UCF
82 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.2% more
Houston: 3.4
vs
UCF: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+43.7% more
Houston: 7.8
vs
UCF: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.8%
Houston: 83.8%
vs
UCF: 77.0%
Turnovers (L5)
+29.9% more
UCF: 9.9
vs
Houston: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCF Score
48.0
55
HOU Score
69.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 42.0
16.0 / 29.0
Assists
13.7 / 16.9
18.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.1
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 48.2
55.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
83.8 / 77.0
75.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
31.8 / 35.5
40.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.8 / 5.4
7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
7.0 / 9.9
5.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
HOU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.2
HOU
Advantage
18-19-0
(48.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6%
Total +/-: +1.2
HOU
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
UCF
HOU
UCF
ML
70%
26-11
55%
18-15
68%
23-11
65%
20-11
ATS
70%
26-11
55%
18-15
68%
23-11
65%
20-11
TTL
59%
22-15
61%
20-13
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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