Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Griffins @ Purple Eagles CAN @ NIA

CANISIUS

GOLDEN GRIFFINSCAN

8-15  |  Road

56
FINAL
Tue, Feb 3 • 6:30 PM ET
Gallagher Center
View Odds Details →

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

5-17  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN GRIFFINS
0%
📊
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
GOLDEN GRIFFINS --
PURPLE EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
NIAGARA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Golden GriffinsCAN (-3.5) 0 Purple EaglesNIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Griffins Cover

42.1%

Purple Eagles Cover

57.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NIA +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIA)

CAN By 1-7 points

26.8%

CAN By 8-14 points

18.6%

NIA By 1-7 points

23.0%

NIA By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
87
CANISIUS
85
NIAGARA
Simulated Score
72
CANISIUS
75
NIAGARA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Griffins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Purple Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purple Eagles (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
D
Sim Purple Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o128.5 Loss
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim u128.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 3, 2026 CAN @ NIA 56 - 65
Jan 14, 2026 NIA @ CAN 59 - 54
Feb 12, 2025 CAN @ NIA 60 - 71
Jan 31, 2025 NIA @ CAN 64 - 63
Feb 23, 2024 NIA @ CAN 59 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +7.0%
Canisius: 64.9% vs Niagara: 57.9%
Assists (L5) +11.3% more
Niagara: 14.2 vs Canisius: 12.8
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.1%
Niagara: 40.7% vs Canisius: 33.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Niagara: 42.5% vs Canisius: 40.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAN Score 87.0 56
NIA Score 85.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.7 / 33.7 38.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.2 / 12.8 15.0 / 7.0
Blocks 1.9 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.5 / 40.6 56.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 57.9 / 64.9 78.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 34.6 31.0 / 22.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.6 4.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 12.7 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAN Advantage
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAN
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -0.5
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CAN
8-21-0
O: 27.6% / U: 72.4% Total +/-: -3.6
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIA
CAN
NIA
CAN
ML
55% 16-13
55% 17-14
72% 21-8
68% 21-10
ATS
69% 20-9
65% 20-11
72% 21-8
68% 21-10
TTL
55% 16-13
58% 18-13
100% 29-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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