IOWA
HAWKEYESIOWA
15-5 | Road
84
OREGON
DUCKSORE
8-13 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
100%
DUCKS
0%
HAWKEYES
--
DUCKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-37.0
OREGON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +37.0 points (Oregon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORE -37.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)
IOWA By 1-7 points
0.0%
IOWA By 8-14 points
0.0%
ORE By 1-7 points
0.1%
ORE By 8-14 points
1.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Iowa
48
IOWA
Oregon
85
OREGON
Simulated Score
Iowa
70
IOWA
Oregon
76
OREGON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ducks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ducks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ducks (+9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Sim
Ducks (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u134.5
Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Sim
u134.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
IOWA @ ORE
84 - 66
Feb 19, 2025
ORE @ IOWA
80 - 78
Mar 22, 2021
ORE @ IOWA
95 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+37.6% more
Oregon: 3.4
vs
Iowa: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+36.4% more
Iowa: 8.1
vs
Oregon: 5.2
Assists (L5)
+29.5% more
Iowa: 13.1
vs
Oregon: 9.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.2%
Iowa: 83.1%
vs
Oregon: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score
48.0
84
ORE Score
85.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.2 / 35.4
24.0 / 45.0
Assists
9.3 / 13.1
11.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.4 / 2.5
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
38.3 / 46.2
41.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
67.9 / 83.1
88.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
30.5 / 29.0
31.0 / 26.0
Steals
5.2 / 8.1
2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 12.2
9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
Advantage
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA
Advantage
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 8.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
ORE
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.1
ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
ORE
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
IOWA
ORE
IOWA
ML
56%
18-14
59%
22-15
62%
18-11
78%
28-8
ATS
56%
18-14
76%
28-9
62%
18-11
78%
28-8
TTL
59%
19-13
57%
21-16
100%
29-0
100%
36-0
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