EAST CAROLINA
PIRATESECU
6-15 | Road
76
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
OWLSFAU
14-8 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
100%
OWLS
0%
PIRATES
--
OWLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Florida Atlantic)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAU)
ECU By 1-7 points
9.3%
ECU By 8-14 points
2.7%
FAU By 1-7 points
21.6%
FAU By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
East Carolina
73
EAST CAROLINA
Florida Atlantic
84
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Simulated Score
East Carolina
65
EAST CAROLINA
Florida Atlantic
78
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Owls
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Owls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Owls (-10.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Owls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o152.5
Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u152.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
ECU @ FAU
76 - 75
Mar 9, 2025
ECU @ FAU
53 - 81
Jan 5, 2025
FAU @ ECU
78 - 76
Jan 2, 2024
ECU @ FAU
64 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+43.9% more
Florida Atlantic: 15.7
vs
East Carolina: 10.9
Blocks (L5)
+20.4% more
Florida Atlantic: 5.0
vs
East Carolina: 4.2
Steals (L5)
+19.6% more
Florida Atlantic: 6.3
vs
East Carolina: 5.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Florida Atlantic: 30.5%
vs
East Carolina: 28.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ECU Score
73.0
76
FAU Score
84.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 28.1
39.0 / 47.0
Assists
11.9 / 12.5
20.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.0 / 4.2
9.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.5 / 41.4
51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
68.4 / 74.2
80.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
36.7 / 36.1
37.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.3 / 5.3
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.7 / 10.9
16.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
11-20-0
(35.5%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
FAU
Advantage
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -2.5
FAU
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +3.9
FAU
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAU
ECU
FAU
ECU
ML
64%
21-12
55%
17-14
66%
21-11
55%
17-14
ATS
70%
23-10
52%
16-15
66%
21-11
55%
17-14
TTL
58%
19-14
61%
19-12
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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