Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Eagles LIN @ MORE

LINDENWOOD

LIONSLIN

13-9  |  Road

79
FINAL
Sat, Jan 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Ellis T. Johnson Arena
View Odds Details →

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

12-10  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
EAGLES
0%
LIONS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
170.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
MOREHEAD STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Morehead State)
LionsLIN (-3.5) 0 EaglesMORE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

2.3%

Eagles Cover

97.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORE -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORE)

LIN By 1-7 points

1.7%

LIN By 8-14 points

0.3%

MORE By 1-7 points

8.0%

MORE By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
LINDENWOOD
95
MOREHEAD STATE
Simulated Score
65
LINDENWOOD
78
MOREHEAD STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Eagles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 170.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 31, 2026 LIN @ MORE 79 - 78
Jan 1, 2026 MORE @ LIN 64 - 77
Mar 5, 2025 MORE @ LIN 65 - 73
Feb 13, 2025 MORE @ LIN 60 - 73
Jan 18, 2025 LIN @ MORE 65 - 82
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.1%
Morehead State: 35.7% vs Lindenwood: 26.6%
Steals (L5) +54.4% more
Lindenwood: 12.2 vs Morehead State: 5.6
Blocks (L5) +39.7% more
Lindenwood: 7.6 vs Morehead State: 4.6
Turnovers (L5) +31.1% more
Lindenwood: 15.7 vs Morehead State: 10.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIN Score 75.0 79
MORE Score 95.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 26.6 31.0 / 46.0
Assists 12.9 / 12.4 10.0 / 14.0
Blocks 4.6 / 7.6 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 45.6 44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 73.3 / 77.9 77.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 37.0 29.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.6 / 12.2 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 15.7 9.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIN
14-15-1 (48.3%)
Margin: 5.1 ATS +/-: -0.2
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
LIN
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: -0.8
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORE
LIN
MORE
LIN
ML
62% 20-12
47% 15-17
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
ATS
59% 19-13
34% 11-21
68% 21-10
61% 19-12
TTL
53% 17-15
53% 17-15
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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